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Футурологические прогнозы прошлого
10 место: Научно-технические прогнозы появились еще в античности и раннем христианстве. Любимой темой этих прогнозов было пришествие Мессии и геенна огненная. Некоторые современные ученые углядели в геенне высокотемпературный катализ.
9 место: В Средние века прогнозы посыпались как из рога изобилия. Предрекали открытие трансмутации (превращение свинца в золото, катализируемое философским камнем) и обретение бессмертия с помощью того же камня. Вторая идея пока не реализована, но некоторым подобием первой могут служить ядерные реакции.
8 место: Ряд научно-технических прогнозов опубликовал и знаменитый Нострадамус. Однако его катрены туманны и поддаются слишком различным интерпретациям. Некоторые считают, что он предсказал всю таблицу Менделеева с указанием критических масс некоторых элементов.
7 место: Первое предсказание в области демографии появилось в начале XIX века. Священник Мальтус констатировал рост народонаселения в геометрической прогрессии, а увеличение средств существования лишь в арифметической, и предсказал неминуемый голод беднейших слоев общества.
6 место: Великий Леонардо да Винчи перешел от слов к делу и создал модели парашюта, дельтаплана и самобеглой коляски.
5 место: Очень точным предсказателем считают Жюля Верна. Хотя, он ничего не предсказывал, а только умножал на десять уже имеющиеся изобретения. Подлодка капитана Немо принципиально ничем не отличается от деревянных подводных снарядов, существовавших еще в Византии.
4 место: Летающие автомобили предсказали во Франции незадолго до начала ХХ века.
3 место: Одним из самых вопиюще неверных было предсказание гибели человечества от озоновых дыр.
2 место: Одним из самых любопытных предсказаний многие считают слова фантаста Ефремова о том, что через сотню лет каждый человек сможет мгновенно связаться с любым другим человеком, находящимся в любой точке Вселенной, причем устройство для этого будет иметь размер авторучки.
1 место: В 1960-е годы ХХ века ученые предупредили, что нефти на Земле осталось на тридцать лет. Через тридцать лет они предрекли исчерпание запасов нефти через сорок лет. Прошло уже лет десять, а разведанные запасы нефти только увеличились. Теперь некоторые геологи оценили придуманную еще Дмитрием Менделеевым неорганическую теорию. В качестве вывода из этой теории следует, в частности, что нефть образуется и сейчас, и, следовательно, запасы ее практически вечны и неисчерпаемы.
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